Chalfant Valley, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

998
FXUS65 KREV 041851
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
1151 AM PDT Wed Jun 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Shower and thunderstorm chances continue each afternoon through
  Friday in the Sierra mainly south of Tahoe and western NV south
  of Highway 50.

* Slightly above average temperatures through Thursday will be
  followed by a warmup with increasing HeatRisk this weekend and
  early next week.

* Thunderstorm chances and coverage may increase this weekend into
  early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A rather persistent weather pattern will continue through the rest
of this week with daily chances for isolated showers and
thunderstorms each afternoon mainly near the Sierra and for parts
of western NV south of US-50. There appear to be subtle differences
in coverage each day through Friday. While Mono, eastern Alpine
and southern Mineral counties continue to have the best shower
chances (25-40%) with embedded thunder, a few cells could pop up
farther north to the Tahoe basin and Douglas, southern Lyon and
more of Mineral County Thursday-Friday. For the remainder of
western NV north of US-50 and eastern CA north of I-80, chances
for showers or thunder remain quite slim at less than 10%.

The instability is not very strong for the next few afternoons,
with pulse-type storms expected. Downdraft CAPE is also limited,
generally below 1000 J/kg which would keep most outflow gusts near
or below 40 mph. Pockets of heavy rainfall and small hail could
occur with stronger and slow moving storms, or where redevelopment
occurs along terrain features.

Temperatures will slowly warm up the next couple of days, with
highs returning to the upper 80s-near 90 by Friday in lower
elevations, and around 80 degrees for Sierra communities.

For this weekend into early next week, as the main upper low off
the southern CA coast moves onshore, chances for thunderstorms
increase and spread farther northward across eastern CA-western
NV. Southeast mid-level flow will bring increased moisture while
forcing may increase, depending on the track of this low. Current
projections favor Sunday having the highest overall storm chances,
with potential for more organized storm clusters producing
stronger outflow gusts (50+ mph), heavy rain and hail, with some
activity persisting later into the evening. Additional upper
disturbances could keep storm chances going through the middle of
next week, but confidence is lower on where the better storm
chances line up.

Along with the thunderstorm risk, temperatures will also climb
upward to the lower-mid 90s for lower elevations and lower-mid 80s
for Sierra communities starting Saturday and continuing through
the middle of next week. While the triple digit heat some valleys
saw last Saturday isn`t likely to return, the longer duration of
this warm period could put greater strain for those more
sensitive to heat, with several days of widespread Moderate
HeatRisk. Outside of outflow gusts, only modest zephyr-type PM
breezes are anticipated through early next week, with a possible
slight increase in the zephyr breezes next Tuesday-Wednesday. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...

For KMMH, the risk for showers and thunderstorms continues each
afternoon through Friday, mainly between 20Z-02Z. Brief terrain
obscurations and lower CIGS/VIS in rain, a few lightning strikes
and outflow gusts to 30 kt are the main impacts from these storms.

In addition, KTRK may see brief IFR/LIFR conditions with patchy
early AM fog mainly between 11-14Z for the next couple of mornings,
and a bit of haze due to recent nearby controlled burns. Otherwise,
VFR conditions will prevail at the Tahoe area and far western NV
terminals through Friday, with less than 10% chance for
thunderstorms and PM wind gusts mainly below 20 kt. MJD

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$